Jean-Pierre Petit brilliantly offered his insights into the macroeconomic state of the world, delivering valuable information and forecasts, at an evening organised by the Monaco Economic Board, in partnership with Jutheau Husson on September 16.
If the dynamic and interactive format of the event captured the attention of some 120 entrepreneurs and officials present, the content was no less remarkable. The President of the Cahiers Verts de l’Economie (Green Notebooks on the Economy) of course looked into the conflict in Ukraine, the consequences of which are particularly serious for Europe.
This was a war planned to be lightning fast but is now set to last, due in particular to the lack of rationality of Moscow’s leaders.
Regarding the gas crisis which is shaking the Old Continent and which is having an impact on the price of energy in general, it is far from finished.
The hypotheses made on the basis of a decrease in consumption of 15 percent and a diversification of imports and production would not be enough to cover all needs, and sectors such as heavy industry, transport, agri-food and textiles could particularly suffer in this scenario.
More generally at the global level, the situation is a general slowdown in activity.
For Jean-Pierre Petit, among the major global economic players it is ultimately the United States that stands out among the best, in particular thanks to its lower dependence on energy bought from outside.
As for Europe, it is right according to him to massively protect households through support measures. Despite the risk of an inflationary loop, he considers that this maintenance of activity makes it possible to limit decline and social conflicts at a reduced price, due to still negative real rates.
Speaking of inflation, the economist estimates that we are currently reaching a global peak, with the exception of Europe which should see its indices rise until next year. Finally, from a financial point of view, long rates will also approach a peak.
Jean-Pierre Petit calls for caution on share prices, as the bullish market trend has not yet begun.
The next economic conference of the MEB will take place on October 4 on the occasion of the Monaco Business fair, with Christophe Barraud, Chief Economist and Strategist at Market Securities.
PHOTO: From left to right Michel Dotta, President of the MEB; HE Pierre Dartout, Minister of State, Jean-Pierre Petit, President of the Cahiers Verts de l’Economie, and Hervé Husson, President of Jutheau Husson.