On 17 May, the Monaco Economic Board (MEB) partnered with Monterra Wealth Management to host leading economist Christophe Barraud for a special economic conference at Castelroc, overlooking the Prince’s Palace…
Recognised by Bloomberg as the top forecaster for China, the U.S., and the Eurozone, Barraud offered a detailed and candid analysis of the current economic climate, which he described as “extremely turbulent and volatile.”
Barraud provided insights across his three key areas of expertise, beginning with China, where he predicted 2025 growth of +5.4%. Strong consumer spending, strategic government investment in tourism and infrastructure, and a shift toward high value-added industries like electric vehicles are all contributing to a more positive outlook. He also noted encouraging signs from the struggling real estate sector, which had been dragging on growth for years.
Turning to the U.S., Barraud acknowledged the complexity of predicting American performance amid new tariffs and political uncertainty. While GDP contracted slightly in Q1, underlying data showed stronger-than-expected growth in consumption and investment. He warned of continued volatility, especially in an election year, but suggested Trump may soften his stance to stimulate consumption through tax cuts.
As for the Eurozone, Barraud sees two pillars supporting stability: a more flexible monetary policy and major public investment in defence and infrastructure. Germany’s €500 billion infrastructure plan and anticipated €800 billion in defence funding will help boost activity. While 2025 remains challenging, he forecasted a notable recovery in 2026, though remained critical of France’s fiscal approach.
Barraud’s engaging and example-rich presentation ended with a lively Q&A session on the terrace, where Monaco’s business leaders took the opportunity to reflect on global challenges from one of the best views in the Principality.
Image: DR
