The Monaco Economic Board (MEB) hosted its annual global outlook conference on February 10, welcoming economist Jean-Christophe Caffet to deliver a wide-ranging analysis of 2025’s macroeconomic shifts and forecast challenges for 2026…
Caffet, Group Chief Economist at Coface, outlined key takeaways from the recent Paris conference, covering topics such as trade policy, globalisation, the energy transition and regional instabilities.
A central theme was the global impact of Donald Trump’s return to the White House. His administration’s sharp rise in tariffs, now averaging 16 to 17 percent, was noted as an internal cost borne first by US businesses, and increasingly, by consumers. Geopolitical flashpoints, from Ukraine to the Pacific, and the recent toppling of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, added layers of unpredictability to the macroeconomic environment.
Despite these tensions, global growth in 2025 aligned with expectations, with the US reaching 2.2 percent, the UK 1.4 percent, and Spain outperforming at 3 percent. Yet Caffet warned of increased corporate bankruptcies, particularly in the US, where failures rose 18 percent in Q3 2025. For 2026, Coface predicts a global slowdown, notably due to China’s decelerating growth and cautious fiscal policy.
However, emerging markets are expected to drive two-thirds to three-quarters of global growth. For European economies, Germany’s anticipated fiscal stimulus may offer modest uplift.
Caffet concluded by encouraging businesses to stay informed and ensure their risks are properly insured, as volatility is likely to persist in 2026. With a shifting global order and mounting complexity, vigilance and adaptability remain essential for economic resilience.
Image: MEB