Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist of Allianz Group, Europe’s leading insurer and investor, informed and entertained Monaco Economic Board members at a presentation at the Hotel Metropole on Monday evening.
In a very wide-ranging and fast-paced discourse, Mr Subran addressed the topic of how to navigate the coming Cold War, but took several stops along the way.
At the outset he promised that 2024 will be a long year, with climate change and its economic impact and Sino-American rivalry just parts of a complex environment in which companies operate.
Among his more general observations the former World Bank economist said that the Russia-Ukraine war is likely to become frozen, and if Donald Trump becomes the next US President the European Union will become the chief financial supporter of Ukraine.
Looking at energy costs, Mr Subran said that wholesale future electricity prices should not cause too much concern in 2024.
Rather boldly, he offered an approximate breakdown of the economic cost of global warming in a European context, based on the number of days when temperatures exceed 32 degrees and a cocktail of consequences. Spain, with 37 such days, suffered the biggest hit to GDP, of 1 percent, followed by Greece, with 35 days and a hit of 0.9 percent, Italy, with 19 heatwave days and a 0.5 percent hit, and France, with just two superheat days recorded, just 0.1 percent.
Mr Subran’s very appreciative audience later had the opportunity to digest his multiple messages over cocktails.
PHOTO: Ludovic Subran addresses MEB members